Scientific Understanding of Natural Disasters

Background
The devastating Indian Ocean tsunami of Decemb er 2004 hig hlig hted the lack of preparedness and lack of data-sharing among the affected countries. Nearly a quarter of a million people lost their lives, and over 1.6 million were displaced from their homes. In the aftermath of this shocking event, IAP members decided to activate the Academies and their scientists in efforts to increase international cooperation in research, data-sharing and application of modern technology for disaster mitigation. As proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), agreed upon and approved by the IAP Executive Committee Meeting in February, 2005, the IAP initiative on “Natural Disaster Mitigation” was launched as an IAP response to the Indian Ocean tsunami and more generally to natural disaster mitigation. CAS was to act as the lead Academy for the initiative and member academies from Bangladesh, Cuba, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, U.S., and Indonesia joined the initiative.The six member academies quickly nominated their experts to join the working group. Later on, experts from Canada, Australia, Norway, Nigeria and UN assisted in the initiative. Between 2005 and 2008, a number of work-shops were held, which formed task groups to work on establishing and sharing natural disaster databases, and ensuring their manage-ment, standardization and quality control. CAS also held training courses on disaster management and mitigation for scientists from developing countries. Since the start of this initiative, several natural disasters have occurred, such as Hurricane Katrina in the USA, Hurricane Nargis in Myanmar, and the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province of China. These devastating disasters, resulting human suffering, and the socio-economic set-backs caused by these events clearly showed the need for increased international cooperation in disaster preparedness, data collection and sharing, and public awareness. The Working Group decided to produce three documents. The major report provides scientific descriptions of earthquakes, tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts, selected for study due to the extent of their destructive power and numbers of lives affected. The report also covers international disaster reduction activities and technological applications for natural disaster mitigation. It has the specific purpose of providing a scientific and practical guide to Academies of Sciences, with examples of good practices in implementing mitigation measures. It contains recommendations for actions where the Academies can play a vital role, and thus support other international activities such as the planned ICSU programme for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk. The second report is an Executive Summary of the Report, with a final Statement of Recom- IAP Report  Natural Disaster Mitigation mendations to IAP being produced.

Scientific Understanding of Natural Disasters
Natural hazards resulting from geophysical and hydrometeorological events are uncon-trollable forces that impact the environment in which we live. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can alter the earth’s topography, while flooding and drought have a great impact on life forms. Often, hazards become disasters that cause human and economic losses, and the magnitude of these losses is increasing. Complex infrastructure, population growth and widespread poverty are some of the reasons, but human activities such as land use practices exacerbate the effects.This is evident both in developing and developed countries. Further, there is now convincing evidence that climate change is contributing to an increasing frequency and intensity of some types of events.However, as we prepare to meet these chang- ing hydrometeorological conditions, we must use science and technology to explore the potentially positive aspects of a changing climate. Lack of scientific and technological tools or experience cannot explain why so many of the hazards become disasters. Knowledge, exp erience and to ols exist, but there is a problem of access to, and shar ing of,information and data, and a need for science to be incorporated into social and political decision - making . To reduce risks and vulnerability, to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, and to improve rescue operations, a multi-disciplinary approach is necessary, where we accept the need to involve natural, social and political sciences. These issues are of global concern.Survey on Natural Disaster MitigationTo determine the level of natural disaster mitigation work around the world, the IAP Working Group distributed a questionnaire to the member academies of IAP. To date, 14 replies have been received from Academies in Cuba, India, Malaysia, Argentina, Jamaica, Japan, Chinese Taipei, China, Greece, Albania, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan and Sweden. The quest ionnaire had 15 quest ions in 5 categories, covering the evaluation of natural disaster mitigation, general severity
estimates of major natural disasters, research activities in these areas, public education and emergency response system infrastructure, and best practices. The analysis of  the answers showed  that : basic scientific research on natural disaster mitigation is critical; the most hazardous major natural disasters are floods, storms, droughts and earthquakes, including tsunamis; the research work is mostly financed by governments and conducted by professional agencies and academic institutions. Only one-third of the replies indicated that financial support was sufficient. International cooperation programmes are, however, being carried out, especially between developed and developing countries.The questionnaire and the analysis, are presented in the main report.Natural Disaster MitigationIAP Report
International Activities in Natural Disaster Mitigation
As natural disasters have become major threats to human life and the world economy, governments and international organizations are co op erat ing to promote g lob a l andregional risk management, and to improve the capability to mitigate the effects of disasters. Early international disaster reduction activities can be traced back to the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR, 1990-1999). It raised awareness of the significance of natural disaster reduction. In 1994, the First World Conference on Disaster Reduction was held in Yokohama, Japan, establishing the guiding principles for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. In December, 1999, the UN General Assembly adopted the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) to implement follow-up action for the achievements of the decade, and to promote the continuing development of disaster reduction around the world. Then, in 2005, the Second World Conference on Disaster Reduction was held in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan, and the Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (Hyogo Framework for Action, HFA), was adopted by the Conference, which has become the international blueprint for disaster reduction. In December, 2006, the United Nations General Assembly agreed to establish the “United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergenc y Response-UNSPIDER” as a new United Nations programme. This is a gateway to space-based information for disaster management support, serving as a bridge to connect disaster management and space communities, and by being a facilitator of capacity-building, and institutional strengthening, for developing countries in particular. Along with such UN activities, some regional international organizations and international science and technology organizations have made efforts to encourage regional cooperation on natural disaster mitigation. One of the major European efforts is the International Charter “Space and Major Disasters” initiated by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the French space agency (CNES) in 1999, which aims to provide a unified system of space data acquisition and delivery to those affected by natural or man-made disasters. Now, the Charter has expanded into a world-wide programme and plays an important role in natural disaster mitigation activities.In Asia, the most disaster-prone continent, the Asian Disaster Reduction & Response Network (ADRRN) was formed in 2002 after agreement between the Asia Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) in Kobe, Japan and the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA). This brought together more than 30 NGOs from all over Asia to work together for Disaster Reduction & Response.Earthquake Disasters An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth’s lithosphere (its crust and upper mantle), which is caused by the release of built-up stresses within rocks along geological faults, or by the movement of magma in volcanic areas. Smaller earthquakes occur frequently, but annually only as many as 18-20 reach a magnitude above Ms7. Approximately 40 disastrous earthquakes have occurred since IAP Report  Natural Disaster Mitigationthe end of the 20th century, and the total death toll is nearly 1.7 million. This number is about 50%of all victims of natural disasters. Most earthquakes (80%) occur in the oceans, mainly in the subduction zones. Earthquakes occurring in such regions are relatively large and they are also deep. These earthquakes can cause tsunamis. Continental earthquakes are less frequent than those in the ocean and they occur mainly on the boundaries of continental plates or the boundaries of active blocks.Like other disasters, earthquakes and tsuna-mis can be sudden, seriously destructive, and create long-lasting social, environmental and economic problems. However, compared with weather-related or biological disasters, damage from earthquakes is multiplied by the impossibility of accurate and timely forecasting, and afterwards by difficulty in timely response and rescue efforts.Earthquake disaster risk zonation is an impor-tant tool in earthquake disaster prevention. Developed countries have well-defined a large amount of earthquake disaster zoning and risk assessment maps. It is necessary to evaluate the potential dangers of earthquakes by improving theory and methodology of risk assessment, based on seismic activity and active fault monitoring. It is also crucial to document disaster-caused changes, disaster degree, risk, and loss estimations.As well, engineering analysis for structural collapse prevention and deformation of buildings in the event of a major earthquake must be put in place everywhere. Related research must continue to be carried out on the seismic structure of active faults, me chan is ms of earthquake generation , assessment of potential earthquake activity, and potential losses.The suddenness and destr uc tiveness of earthquakes often result in rescue decisions being delayed, chaotic, unplanned and unscientific, thus resulting in greater loss. It is critical to improve the means and methods of rescue in all countries. In order to improve the capabilities of emergency response and rescue, research should comprehensively review emergency rescue systems, rapid disaster evaluation technologies, communications, and decision-making methods.There is also a great need for improved early warning systems. The lack of such a system resulted in the long-distance devastating damage following the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004. A systematic assessment of emergency and assistance needs before an earthquake would ser ve in determining the disaster extent, quantify assistance needed, and establish a disaster planning database and disaster-needs forecast. The resulting disaster aid model can help to rapidly make decisions on the level of assistance within 2-3 hours after large-scale earthquakes and an hour after middle-small- scale earthquakes. The Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake, for example, caused numerous deaths and inju ries , cut of felectricity, communications, transportation and water supplies. Major difficulties were encountered at the time for rescue and disaster-relief operations because of the unknown situation on-site. Chinese Academy of Sciences, in cooperation with other Organizations,used remote sensing techniques to work on disaster relief immediately. Through acquiring, processing, interpreting and analyzing remote sensing data, a series of reports on disaster reduction were immediately submitted for  Natural Disaster MitigationIAP Report earthquake assistance and disaster relief at all government levels.
Tropical Cyclones and Storm
Surge DisastersTropical cyclones are warm-core meteoro-logical systems that develop over tropical and subtropical ocean waters, with a surface temperature of 26.5 or more, and located under area sof small changes in wind velocities with height. There are, on average, some 90 tropical cyclones annually (including tropical storms, strong tropical storms, cyclonic storms, typhoons , hurricanes , strong cyclonic storms). Their distribution is countered in the northwest Pacific Ocean, the northeast Pacific Ocean, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and the southwest Pacific Ocean, with of 29%, 18%, 15%, 12%and 12%respectively. Storm surges are caused by tropical cyclones, caused by strong winds and sudden change of atmospheric pressure near their centers. This causes a sudden and sharp rise in coastal water levels. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statistics show that tropical chyclones ,associated storm surge, and torrential rains are the most destructive hazards in terms of deaths and material losses. According to the Third Assessment Report on Global Climate Change issued by the WMO and the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since 1750, overall climate warming has been a result of human activities. The surface temperature of most tropical waters has already increased by 0.2-0.5 degrees. There are indications that, in the future, tropical cyclones may increase in intensity, although there are uncertainties regarding the overall frequency of tropical cyclones in a warming world. With increasing globalization, it can be inferred that disasters related to typhoons will have increasing socio-economic impact, particularly in developing countries.In an attempt to reduce the effects of cyclones and storm surges, science and technology have developed sur veillance systems and methodologies for disaster prediction and early-warning. These systems of spatial observation technolog y, supported by powerful computers and telecommunications facilities, have resulted in the development of numerical weather prediction techniques that have permitted significantly-improved real-time forecasts of weather-related hazardous phenomena. Some of the major advances of these sciences include: the availabilityof an unprecedented amount of new non-traditional observations, in particular from earth obser vation satellites and imaging radars; considerable progress in the scientific understanding of dynamical and physical processes in the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans. Although over the past two decades, several nations have made remarkable progress in typhoon surveillance, forecasting and alerts, there are still material predictive errors of the estimation of storm tracks, and in the accuracy of predicting their intensity, path, wind and associated precipitation of tropical cyclones. Forecasting and early warning systems for storm surges have mainly been established in developed countries, but Cuba and Bangladesh are examples of developing c ou ntries where new sur veillance and forecasting systems have had very positive impact on disaster mitigation.
IAP Report  Natural Disaster Mitigation
Flood and Drought-Induced Disasters
Floods and droughts have devastating conse-quences. According to the Asian Disaster Reduc tion Cente r, half the popul ation worldwide who suffered natural disasters was affected by floods and one third by drought over the period of 1975 to 2005. The World Disaster Report, published by the International Federation of Red Cross and the Red Crescent Societies, showed that over the past 20 years, deaths resulting from flood-related disasters, including floods, landslides, storm surges and tsunamis, accounted for 83.7%, 2.7%, 12.4%, 0.7%and 0.5%of the total disaster-related fatalities in Asia, Africa, America, Europe and Oceania, respectively. The statistics also indicated that developing countries experienced more casualties if they were struck by natural disasters. Although a variety of water control engineering projects were built in the 20th century, the rising trend of property loss in terms of absolute value due to floods has not changed, even in developed countries. The increasing losses resulting from floods and droughts in both developed and developing countries indicate that disaster mitigation is not a simple matter of economic development, but a more complex issue in which science and technology should play an important role.The mainstream water-related management strategy in the new century has shifted from sing le-pur p os e engineer ing me asure to comprehensive management for flood and drought prevention.With climate change, extreme weather events are predicted to o ccur more f requently in the future. The probability that these events will cause great damage has also increased due to rapid population growth and construction in areas of high flood risk. Increased vulnerability of life and property brings with it an increased demand for protection against the elements of nature. Howe ver, t radit iona l met ho ds of f lo o d control and drought relief have become more complex as we face a deterioration in water distribution, intensification of soil erosion, degradation in aquatic ecology and overall regional water shortages. With existing and the future challenges related to floods and drought, there are several crucial issues facing science and governments. Under the premise that floods are inevitable, how can we reduce fatalities and property loss and improve our technologies to take advantage of the positive aspects of floods and thus transform negative relationships into beneficial interactions between humans and nature?In order to plan for management for the disasters, we need to select a risk management mode that fits local conditions.Overall, we must exercise non-engineering measures including law, economics, admini-st ration and education to enhance the integrity and long-term benefits of flood control engineering projects. Finally, we have to perfect the emergenc y response management system and operations for severe floods.
Earth Observation Technologies for Natural Disaster Mitigation
Earth Observation (EO) comprises in situ obser vation, which is direct obser vation
Natural Disaster MitigationIAP Reportcarried out in close proximity to the object or phenomenon of interest, and remote sensing, or observation from a distance. There is an increasing use of EO technologies in post disaster damage assessment.Examples of EO at work today include the thousands of data buoys operating in the world’s oceans, hundreds of thousands of land-based environment monitoring stations, tens of thousands of observations by radio sonds and aircraft, and over 50 environmental satellites orbiting the globe.Earth Obser vation technologies uti lize information from space and airborne systems through sensors. From decades of work on disaster relief, it has been shown that EO can provide considerable help, especially using methods of optical and microwave technologies. Optical sensors have a long history, and have become more and more accurate. Their technical advantage gives them an irreplaceable role in EO. Microwave sensors are useful in situations where factors such as clouds or darkness impede the work of optical sensors. The most frequently used microwave s ens ors are microwave radiometers, scatterometers, radar altimeters, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Only the microwave radiometers are passive remote sensing sensors, while all the others are active sensors.In terms of earthquake disaster mitigation and relief, EO is used for regional structural/ tectonic mapping and other topographic and landuse base-mapping for emergency relief logistics, estimation of settlement and structural vulnerability (e.g. building design) and e x p o su re ( e. g . proximity to active earthquake zones). EO also contributes to damage mapping using high resolution satellites, which is a primary need for relief agencies that need to locate victims and assess risk. SAR interferometry (InSAR) is increasingly used for the mapping of seismic ground deformation. InS-AR data provides information on pre-, co- and post-seismic deformation, and therefore c ont ributes to the mitigation phase by adding to the spatial understanding of fault mechanics dynamics and strain. For floods, both optical and radar satellites have been widely used to quantify catchment basin characteristics, such as watershed boundaries, elevation and slope, land cover, as well as variables such as soil moisture, snow pack, temperature, vegetation indices, and evapotranspiration. They have also been used operationally for flood and drought monitoring, mapping, early warning and damage assessment. As a weather-related disaster, the study of droughts have used a number of satellite-based programs that are providing improved details relating to existing and projected. However, the potential contribution of existing satellites is still not yet fully exploited.Typhoons and hurricanes occur in the vast tropical ocean/seas where they are mainly monitored using EO. Current research is focusing on improving EO for weather forecasting and also improving the timeliness, quality, and long - term continuity of observations to revise current forecasting models.
Recommendations
This report has the specific purpose of providing a scientific and practical guide to Academies of Sciences, with examples of good practice of mitigation measures and technique. The intention is not to propose a
IAP Report  Natural Disaster Mitigation research programme on disaster mitigation. Many extensive international programs exist, while others are in the planning phase, All of these illustrate the global concern for the importance of increasing our efforts to reduce the effects of natural disasters. In our efforts to prevent and mitigate the effects of natural disasters we need to apply existing scientific technologies and tools. We need to share and spread information and we need to work in an inter-disciplinary manner, involving natural, economic, social and political sciences. Of equal importance is the transmission of this knowledge to decision-makers who are in a position to implement new policies. Applying current knowledge is, however, not enough. Improvements in science and technology are needed and suggestions for such actions are included in the chapters describing specific natural disasters.The InterAcademy Panel proposes that a network of close to 100 Academies and their scientists should become active participants in this global effort to try to reduce disaster losses through promoting relevant science, and spreading the application of existing knowledge and technologies. The Academies shou ld prov ide a venue for interac t ion between scientists, governments and society to achieve the goal of disaster reduction by integrating existing research and best practices into specific disaster-reduction policies. The Academies could, in this way, by means of their particular position, serve as a bridge between on-going international
programmes and national decision-makers. We recommend that:
●Each member Academy should formulate medium and long-term natural disaster mitigation policies for adoption in their own countries, emphasising the importance of science-based decision-making, and establish a platform of effective communi-cation of these best practices.
●IAP promotes workshops and seminars, especially involving developing countries, that bring together scientists and decision- makers to exchange best practice and ideas.
●IA P encourages th e development of research into Disaster Science, placing the understanding of disaster phenomena against the background of global environmental change, earth system science and evolution of the planet, and that natural disaster mitigation research be carried out in the spirit of harmony between man and nature.
●Member Academies assist in education and research programs on natural disaster mitigation in schools and for the general population with a view to increasing public awareness of the threat of natural disasters in their areas.
●IAP establishes a Natural Disaster Mitigation Special Task Force with participation by member Academies. The Task Force would be responsible for organizing workshops, cooperative research programs, information sharing and exchange, training, and provide guidance on cutting-edge research.
●IAP takes steps to ensure that funding is provided for international exchange of scientists, particularly those from nations with less advanced experience and facilities for disaster mitigation.
●IAP increases communication and cooperation with relevant organizations including the International Council for Science (ICSU), The World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO),
Natural Disaster MitigationIAP Report
The Global Earth Obser vation (GEO) and International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ( I S D R ) for information exchange on effective policies and best practices of disaster mitigation.
●IAP should promote efforts to improve capacity for disaster monitoring, forecast-ing and early warning, by integrating the technologies of spaceborne-airborne-in-situ earth observation, data infrastructure, modelling, and information and com-munication technology.
●IAP should promote scientific and technical assistance to developing countries lacking mitigation facilities and capabilities.

●IAP should encourage Governments and Non-Government-Organizations to make efforts towards bilateral or multilateral sound policy agreements on disaster information collection and sharing to strengthen cooperation in disaster management.
Jonny Richards

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