Background
The
devastating Indian Ocean tsunami of Decemb er 2004 hig hlig hted the lack of
preparedness and lack of data-sharing among the affected countries. Nearly a
quarter of a million people lost their lives, and over 1.6 million were
displaced from their homes. In the aftermath of this shocking event, IAP
members decided to activate the Academies and their scientists in efforts to
increase international cooperation in research, data-sharing and application of
modern technology for disaster mitigation. As proposed by the Chinese Academy
of Sciences (CAS), agreed upon and approved by the IAP Executive Committee
Meeting in February, 2005, the IAP initiative on “Natural Disaster Mitigation”
was launched as an IAP response to the Indian Ocean tsunami and more generally
to natural disaster mitigation. CAS was to act as the lead Academy for the
initiative and member academies from Bangladesh, Cuba, Japan, the Netherlands,
Sweden, U.S., and Indonesia joined the initiative.The six member academies
quickly nominated their experts to join the working group. Later on, experts
from Canada, Australia, Norway, Nigeria and UN assisted in the initiative.
Between 2005 and 2008, a number of work-shops were held, which formed task
groups to work on establishing and sharing natural disaster databases, and
ensuring their manage-ment, standardization and quality control. CAS also held
training courses on disaster management and mitigation for scientists from
developing countries. Since the start of this initiative, several natural
disasters have occurred, such as Hurricane Katrina in the USA, Hurricane Nargis
in Myanmar, and the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province of China. These
devastating disasters, resulting human suffering, and the socio-economic set-backs
caused by these events clearly showed the need for increased international
cooperation in disaster preparedness, data collection and sharing, and public
awareness. The Working Group decided to produce three documents. The major
report provides scientific descriptions of earthquakes, tropical cyclones,
storm surges, floods and droughts, selected for study due to the extent of
their destructive power and numbers of lives affected. The report also covers
international disaster reduction activities and technological applications for
natural disaster mitigation. It has the specific purpose of providing a
scientific and practical guide to Academies of Sciences, with examples of good
practices in implementing mitigation measures. It contains recommendations for
actions where the Academies can play a vital role, and thus support other
international activities such as the planned ICSU programme for Integrated
Research on Disaster Risk. The second report is an Executive Summary of the
Report, with a final Statement of Recom- IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation mendations to IAP
being produced.
Scientific
Understanding of Natural Disasters
Natural
hazards resulting from geophysical and hydrometeorological events are
uncon-trollable forces that impact the environment in which we live.
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can alter the earth’s topography, while
flooding and drought have a great impact on life forms. Often, hazards become
disasters that cause human and economic losses, and the magnitude of these losses
is increasing. Complex infrastructure, population growth and widespread poverty
are some of the reasons, but human activities such as land use practices
exacerbate the effects.This is evident both in developing and developed
countries. Further, there is now convincing evidence that climate change is
contributing to an increasing frequency and intensity of some types of
events.However, as we prepare to meet these chang- ing hydrometeorological
conditions, we must use science and technology to explore the potentially
positive aspects of a changing climate. Lack of scientific and technological
tools or experience cannot explain why so many of the hazards become disasters.
Knowledge, exp erience and to ols exist, but there is a problem of access to,
and shar ing of,information and data, and a need for science to be incorporated
into social and political decision - making . To reduce risks and
vulnerability, to mitigate the effects of natural disasters, and to improve
rescue operations, a multi-disciplinary approach is necessary, where we accept
the need to involve natural, social and political sciences. These issues are of
global concern.Survey on Natural Disaster MitigationTo determine the level of
natural disaster mitigation work around the world, the IAP Working Group
distributed a questionnaire to the member academies of IAP. To date, 14 replies
have been received from Academies in Cuba, India, Malaysia, Argentina, Jamaica,
Japan, Chinese Taipei, China, Greece, Albania, Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan
and Sweden. The quest ionnaire had 15 quest ions in 5 categories, covering the
evaluation of natural disaster mitigation, general severity
estimates of major natural disasters,
research activities in these areas, public education and emergency response
system infrastructure, and best practices. The analysis of the answers showed that : basic scientific research on natural
disaster mitigation is critical; the most hazardous major natural disasters are
floods, storms, droughts and earthquakes, including tsunamis; the research work
is mostly financed by governments and conducted by professional agencies and academic
institutions. Only one-third of the replies indicated that financial support was
sufficient. International cooperation programmes are, however, being carried
out, especially between developed and developing countries.The questionnaire
and the analysis, are presented in the main report.Natural Disaster
MitigationIAP Report
International
Activities in Natural Disaster Mitigation
As
natural disasters have become major threats to human life and the world
economy, governments and international organizations are co op erat ing to
promote g lob a l andregional risk management, and to improve the capability to
mitigate the effects of disasters. Early international disaster reduction
activities can be traced back to the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR, 1990-1999). It raised awareness of the significance of natural
disaster reduction. In 1994, the First World Conference on Disaster Reduction was
held in Yokohama, Japan, establishing the guiding principles for the Decade for
Natural Disaster Reduction. In December, 1999, the UN General Assembly adopted
the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) to implement follow-up
action for the achievements of the decade, and to promote the continuing
development of disaster reduction around the world. Then, in 2005, the Second
World Conference on Disaster Reduction was held in Hyogo Prefecture, Japan, and
the Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to
Disasters (Hyogo Framework for Action, HFA), was adopted by the Conference,
which has become the international blueprint for disaster reduction. In
December, 2006, the United Nations General Assembly agreed to establish the
“United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management
and Emergenc y Response-UNSPIDER” as a new United Nations programme. This is a
gateway to space-based information for disaster management support, serving as
a bridge to connect disaster management and space communities, and by being a
facilitator of capacity-building, and institutional strengthening, for
developing countries in particular. Along with such UN activities, some regional
international organizations and international science and technology organizations
have made efforts to encourage regional cooperation on natural disaster mitigation.
One of the major European efforts is the International Charter “Space and Major
Disasters” initiated by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the French space
agency (CNES) in 1999, which aims to provide a unified system of space data acquisition
and delivery to those affected by natural or man-made disasters. Now, the
Charter has expanded into a world-wide programme and plays an important role in
natural disaster mitigation activities.In Asia, the most disaster-prone
continent, the Asian Disaster Reduction & Response Network (ADRRN) was
formed in 2002 after agreement between the Asia Disaster Reduction Center
(ADRC) in Kobe, Japan and the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (UN OCHA). This brought together more than 30 NGOs from all over Asia
to work together for Disaster Reduction & Response.Earthquake Disasters An
earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth’s lithosphere (its crust and upper
mantle), which is caused by the release of built-up stresses within rocks along
geological faults, or by the movement of magma in volcanic areas. Smaller
earthquakes occur frequently, but annually only as many as 18-20 reach a
magnitude above Ms7. Approximately 40 disastrous earthquakes have occurred
since IAP Report Natural Disaster
Mitigationthe end of the 20th century, and the total death toll is nearly 1.7
million. This number is about 50%of all victims of natural disasters. Most
earthquakes (80%) occur in the oceans, mainly in the subduction zones.
Earthquakes occurring in such regions are relatively large and they are also
deep. These earthquakes can cause tsunamis. Continental earthquakes are less frequent
than those in the ocean and they occur mainly on the boundaries of continental
plates or the boundaries of active blocks.Like other disasters, earthquakes and
tsuna-mis can be sudden, seriously destructive, and create long-lasting social,
environmental and economic problems. However, compared with weather-related or
biological disasters, damage from earthquakes is multiplied by the impossibility
of accurate and timely forecasting, and afterwards by difficulty in timely
response and rescue efforts.Earthquake disaster risk zonation is an impor-tant
tool in earthquake disaster prevention. Developed countries have well-defined a
large amount of earthquake disaster zoning and risk assessment maps. It is
necessary to evaluate the potential dangers of earthquakes by improving theory
and methodology of risk assessment, based on seismic activity and active fault
monitoring. It is also crucial to document disaster-caused changes, disaster degree,
risk, and loss estimations.As well, engineering analysis for structural collapse
prevention and deformation of buildings in the event of a major earthquake must
be put in place everywhere. Related research must continue to be carried out on
the seismic structure of active faults, me chan is ms of earthquake generation
, assessment of potential earthquake activity, and potential losses.The suddenness
and destr uc tiveness of earthquakes often result in rescue decisions being
delayed, chaotic, unplanned and unscientific, thus resulting in greater loss.
It is critical to improve the means and methods of rescue in all countries. In
order to improve the capabilities of emergency response and rescue, research
should comprehensively review emergency rescue systems, rapid disaster evaluation
technologies, communications, and decision-making methods.There is also a great
need for improved early warning systems. The lack of such a system resulted in
the long-distance devastating damage following the Indian Ocean tsunami of
2004. A systematic assessment of emergency and assistance needs before an
earthquake would ser ve in determining the disaster extent, quantify assistance
needed, and establish a disaster planning database and disaster-needs forecast.
The resulting disaster aid model can help to rapidly make decisions on the
level of assistance within 2-3 hours after large-scale earthquakes and an hour
after middle-small- scale earthquakes. The Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake, for
example, caused numerous deaths and inju ries , cut of felectricity, communications,
transportation and water supplies. Major difficulties were encountered at the
time for rescue and disaster-relief operations because of the unknown situation
on-site. Chinese Academy of Sciences, in cooperation with other
Organizations,used remote sensing techniques to work on disaster relief immediately.
Through acquiring, processing, interpreting and analyzing remote sensing data,
a series of reports on disaster reduction were immediately submitted for Natural Disaster MitigationIAP Report earthquake
assistance and disaster relief at all government levels.
Tropical
Cyclones and Storm
Surge
DisastersTropical cyclones are warm-core meteoro-logical systems that develop
over tropical and subtropical ocean waters, with a surface temperature of 26.5 ℃or more, and
located under area sof small changes in wind velocities with height. There are,
on average, some 90 tropical cyclones annually (including tropical storms, strong
tropical storms, cyclonic storms, typhoons , hurricanes , strong cyclonic storms).
Their distribution is countered in the northwest Pacific Ocean, the northeast Pacific
Ocean, the southwest Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and
the southwest Pacific Ocean, with of 29%, 18%, 15%, 12%and 12%respectively.
Storm surges are caused by tropical cyclones, caused by strong winds and sudden
change of atmospheric pressure near their centers. This causes a sudden and
sharp rise in coastal water levels. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) statistics
show that tropical chyclones ,associated storm surge, and torrential rains are
the most destructive hazards in terms of deaths and material losses. According
to the Third Assessment Report on Global Climate Change issued by the WMO and the
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since 1750, overall climate
warming has been a result of human activities. The surface temperature of most
tropical waters has already increased by 0.2-0.5 degrees. There are indications
that, in the future, tropical cyclones may increase in intensity, although there
are uncertainties regarding the overall frequency of tropical cyclones in a
warming world. With increasing globalization, it can be inferred that disasters
related to typhoons will have increasing socio-economic impact, particularly in
developing countries.In an attempt to reduce the effects of cyclones and storm surges,
science and technology have developed sur veillance systems and methodologies
for disaster prediction and early-warning. These systems of spatial observation
technolog y, supported by powerful computers and telecommunications facilities,
have resulted in the development of numerical weather prediction techniques
that have permitted significantly-improved real-time forecasts of
weather-related hazardous phenomena. Some of the major advances of these sciences
include: the availabilityof an unprecedented amount of new non-traditional observations,
in particular from earth obser vation satellites and imaging radars; considerable
progress in the scientific understanding of dynamical and physical processes in
the atmosphere and its interaction with the oceans. Although over the past two
decades, several nations have made remarkable progress in typhoon surveillance,
forecasting and alerts, there are still material predictive errors of the
estimation of storm tracks, and in the accuracy of predicting their intensity,
path, wind and associated precipitation of tropical cyclones. Forecasting and
early warning systems for storm surges have mainly been established in developed
countries, but Cuba and Bangladesh are examples of developing c ou ntries where
new sur veillance and forecasting systems have had very positive impact on
disaster mitigation.
IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation
Flood and Drought-Induced Disasters
Floods and
droughts have devastating conse-quences. According to the Asian Disaster Reduc
tion Cente r, half the popul ation worldwide who suffered natural disasters was
affected by floods and one third by drought over the period of 1975 to 2005. The
World Disaster Report, published by the International Federation of Red Cross
and the Red Crescent Societies, showed that over the past 20 years, deaths
resulting from flood-related disasters, including floods, landslides, storm
surges and tsunamis, accounted for 83.7%, 2.7%, 12.4%, 0.7%and 0.5%of the total
disaster-related fatalities in Asia, Africa, America, Europe and Oceania,
respectively. The statistics also indicated that developing countries experienced
more casualties if they were struck by natural disasters. Although a variety of
water control engineering projects were built in the 20th century, the rising
trend of property loss in terms of absolute value due to floods has not changed,
even in developed countries. The increasing losses resulting from floods and droughts
in both developed and developing countries indicate that disaster mitigation is
not a simple matter of economic development, but a more complex issue in which
science and technology should play an important role.The mainstream
water-related management strategy in the new century has shifted from sing
le-pur p os e engineer ing me asure to comprehensive management for flood and drought
prevention.With climate change, extreme weather events are predicted to o ccur
more f requently in the future. The probability that these events will cause
great damage has also increased due to rapid population growth and construction
in areas of high flood risk. Increased vulnerability of life and property brings
with it an increased demand for protection against the elements of nature. Howe
ver, t radit iona l met ho ds of f lo o d control and drought relief have
become more complex as we face a deterioration in water distribution,
intensification of soil erosion, degradation in aquatic ecology and overall
regional water shortages. With existing and the future challenges related to
floods and drought, there are several crucial issues facing science and
governments. Under the premise that floods are inevitable, how can we reduce
fatalities and property loss and improve our technologies to take advantage of
the positive aspects of floods and thus transform negative relationships into
beneficial interactions between humans and nature?In order to plan for management
for the disasters, we need to select a risk management mode that fits local
conditions.Overall, we must exercise non-engineering measures including law,
economics, admini-st ration and education to enhance the integrity and
long-term benefits of flood control engineering projects. Finally, we have to perfect
the emergenc y response management system and operations for severe floods.
Earth Observation Technologies for
Natural Disaster Mitigation
Earth Observation (EO) comprises in situ
obser vation, which is direct obser vation
Natural Disaster
MitigationIAP Reportcarried out in close proximity to the object or phenomenon
of interest, and remote sensing, or observation from a distance. There is an increasing
use of EO technologies in post disaster damage assessment.Examples of EO at
work today include the thousands of data buoys operating in the world’s oceans,
hundreds of thousands of land-based environment monitoring stations, tens of
thousands of observations by radio sonds and aircraft, and over 50
environmental satellites orbiting the globe.Earth Obser vation technologies uti
lize information from space and airborne systems through sensors. From decades
of work on disaster relief, it has been shown that EO can provide considerable
help, especially using methods of optical and microwave technologies. Optical
sensors have a long history, and have become more and more accurate. Their
technical advantage gives them an irreplaceable role in EO. Microwave sensors
are useful in situations where factors such as clouds or darkness impede the
work of optical sensors. The most frequently used microwave s ens ors are microwave
radiometers, scatterometers, radar altimeters, and Synthetic Aperture Radar
(SAR). Only the microwave radiometers are passive remote sensing sensors, while
all the others are active sensors.In terms of earthquake disaster mitigation and
relief, EO is used for regional structural/ tectonic mapping and other
topographic and landuse base-mapping for emergency relief logistics, estimation
of settlement and structural vulnerability (e.g. building design) and e x p o
su re ( e. g . proximity to active earthquake zones). EO also contributes to
damage mapping using high resolution satellites, which is a primary need for relief
agencies that need to locate victims and assess risk. SAR interferometry
(InSAR) is increasingly used for the mapping of seismic ground deformation. InS-AR
data provides information on pre-, co- and post-seismic deformation, and
therefore c ont ributes to the mitigation phase by adding to the spatial
understanding of fault mechanics dynamics and strain. For floods, both optical
and radar satellites have been widely used to quantify catchment basin characteristics,
such as watershed boundaries, elevation and slope, land cover, as well as variables
such as soil moisture, snow pack, temperature, vegetation indices, and
evapotranspiration. They have also been used operationally for flood and
drought monitoring, mapping, early warning and damage assessment. As a
weather-related disaster, the study of droughts have used a number of satellite-based
programs that are providing improved details relating to existing and
projected. However, the potential contribution of existing satellites is still
not yet fully exploited.Typhoons and hurricanes occur in the vast tropical
ocean/seas where they are mainly monitored using EO. Current research is focusing
on improving EO for weather forecasting and also improving the timeliness, quality,
and long - term continuity of observations to revise current forecasting models.
Recommendations
This report has
the specific purpose of providing a scientific and practical guide to Academies
of Sciences, with examples of good practice of mitigation measures and
technique. The intention is not to propose a
IAP Report Natural Disaster Mitigation research programme
on disaster mitigation. Many extensive international programs exist, while
others are in the planning phase, All of these illustrate the global concern
for the importance of increasing our efforts to reduce the effects of natural
disasters. In our efforts to prevent and mitigate the effects of natural
disasters we need to apply existing scientific technologies and tools. We need
to share and spread information and we need to work in an inter-disciplinary
manner, involving natural, economic, social and political sciences. Of equal
importance is the transmission of this knowledge to decision-makers who are in
a position to implement new policies. Applying current knowledge is, however, not
enough. Improvements in science and technology are needed and suggestions for
such actions are included in the chapters describing specific natural
disasters.The InterAcademy Panel proposes that a network of close to 100
Academies and their scientists should become active participants in this global
effort to try to reduce disaster losses through promoting relevant science, and
spreading the application of existing knowledge and technologies. The Academies
shou ld prov ide a venue for interac t ion between scientists, governments and
society to achieve the goal of disaster reduction by integrating existing
research and best practices into specific disaster-reduction policies. The
Academies could, in this way, by means of their particular position, serve as a
bridge between on-going international
programmes and national decision-makers.
We recommend that:
●Each member Academy should formulate medium
and long-term natural disaster mitigation policies for adoption in their own
countries, emphasising the importance of science-based decision-making, and establish
a platform of effective communi-cation of these best practices.
●IAP promotes workshops and seminars,
especially involving developing countries, that bring together scientists and
decision- makers to exchange best practice and ideas.
●IA P encourages th e development of research
into Disaster Science, placing the understanding of disaster phenomena against the
background of global environmental change, earth system science and evolution of
the planet, and that natural disaster mitigation research be carried out in the
spirit of harmony between man and nature.
●Member Academies assist in education and
research programs on natural disaster mitigation in schools and for the general
population with a view to increasing public awareness of the threat of natural
disasters in their areas.
●IAP establishes a Natural Disaster
Mitigation Special Task Force with participation by member Academies. The Task
Force would be responsible for organizing workshops, cooperative research
programs, information sharing and exchange, training, and provide guidance on
cutting-edge research.
●IAP takes steps to ensure that funding
is provided for international exchange of scientists, particularly those from
nations with less advanced experience and facilities for disaster mitigation.
●IAP increases communication and cooperation
with relevant organizations including the International Council for Science
(ICSU), The World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO),
Natural Disaster MitigationIAP Report
The Global Earth Obser vation (GEO) and
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ( I S D R ) for information exchange
on effective policies and best practices of disaster mitigation.
●IAP should promote efforts to improve capacity
for disaster monitoring, forecast-ing and early warning, by integrating the technologies
of spaceborne-airborne-in-situ earth observation, data infrastructure, modelling,
and information and com-munication technology.
●IAP should promote scientific and
technical assistance to developing countries lacking mitigation facilities and
capabilities.
●IAP should encourage
Governments and Non-Government-Organizations to make efforts towards bilateral
or multilateral sound policy agreements on disaster information collection and
sharing to strengthen cooperation in disaster management